Category: Rwabutaza Journal

1960-2025 Tanzania Is The Real World George Orwell’s “Animal Farm”

History repeats itself. The political and economic events that have been happening in Tanzania from 1960 until 2026 are eerily similar to George Orwell’s “Animal Farm”, an allegory and a satirical tale on the 1917 Russian Revolution and the subsequent Soviet Union under the Marxist–Leninist ideology of Joseph Stalin.

From 1960 under the leadership of the first president of Tanzania, Mwalimu Julius Kambarage Nyerere, the people of the United Republic of Tanzania were hopeful and idealistic towards their future as they lived under the ideals of socialism and self-reliance that “All Tanzanians are equal”. Now, fast forward to 2025 Tanzania: One small group of political elites has entrenched and put themselves in power by any means for 66 years since independence, meanwhile the original political and economic ideals of the people continued to deteriorate over the years. These few political elites in power from one party have hijacked and gripped political power with iron fist while mismanaging the economy, as people remain disgruntled with them. They are drunk in power, their actions say that they believe that, “All Tanzanians are equal but some are more equal than others”. In October 2025, some people reached a boiling point, they boiled and rebelled.

On 17 August 1945, George Orwell published “Animal Farm”, a satirical allegorical dystopian novella, in the form of a beast fable to criticize events and ideology leading up to the Russian Revolution of 1917 and then on into the Stalinist era of the Soviet Union, a period when Russia lived under the Marxist–Leninist ideology of Joseph Stalin. The tale portrays the mistreated anthropomorphic farm animals of Manor Farm as they rebel against their human master, and are hoping to create a society where all animals can be equal, free, and happy away from human vices and interventions. However, the rebellion is hijacked and betrayed, and under the dictatorship of the pigs, the farm ends up in a dystopian state nearly identical to what it was before. The final betrayal by the pig leaders against the rest of the animals comes when the pigs alter the original Animal Farm guiding moral that ‘All animals are equal’ to read, “All animals are equal but some are more equal than others”.

Tanzania, an East African country formerly Tanganyika and Zanzibar, was under the British colonial rule and Arab colonial rule respectively. The people of Tanzania were mistreated under the colonial rule. They eventually rebelled against their colonial masters to gain their independence in 1961, and hoped to create a society where all Tanzanians can be equal, free, and happy away from colonial vices and interventions. However, their rebellion and independence from colonial masters is finally hijacked and betrayed, and under the dictatorship of the few political elites, the country ends up in a dystoptian state nearly identical to what it was before independence. In Tanzania, the few political elites under the same political party since 1961 independence, as portrayed by pigs in The Animal Farm, now play the role similar to the role that colonial masters played.

The Animal Farm allegory is a depiction and a reflection of historical events that have been happening in Tanzania from 1960, starting with pre-independent Tanganyika and Zanzibar, followed by the 1961 independence of Tanganyika, 1964 Zanzibar revolution, the 1964 union of Tanganyika and Zanzibar to form Tanzania, followed by ideals of socialism up until 1991, then by economic liberalism and the multi-party political system from 1991, and then followed by a gradual deterioration and erosion of political and economic ideals by the few political elites against the majority well into the 2020’s, capped by the deadly demonstrations and unrest by the masses in the disputed October 2025 presidential election.

From 1991, the people of Tanzania wanted change, change in governance, political party systems, economic systems and leadership. With the fall of USSR, Tanzania as a nation morphed from a single party political system to a “multi-party” political system to mirror the global geopolitical wave of changes sweeping nations as they mutated from Socialism and Communism economic systems to Capitalism. However, from 1991 to 2025, the political and economic ideals of equality, self-reliance and prosperity for all as expected and hope for by the people of Tanzania has gradually deteriorated as the few political elites in power, and under their dictatorship, hijacked and betrayed the nation as the nation gradually moves towards a dystopian state nearly identical to what it was before independence.

In January 2026, the Tanzanian government announced that they are selling part of their gold reserves to raise funds to finance domestic infrastructure projects. In Animal Farm, Napoleon The Pig Leader sells a pile of timber to Mr. Frederick of Pinchfield Farm, and maneuvers to sell the wood to Frederick, only for Frederick to pay with forged banknotes. These transactions mirror the government of Tanzania selling off the nation’s natural resources to imperialists where the few political elites in power are the main benefactors of these contracts and transactions. 

History repeats itself. Events and patterns of the past are repeating. Events and time never lie. Political and economic events that happened in Tanzania from 1960 to 2025 are eerily similar to the ones that happened in the 1917 Russian Revolution and subsequent Marxist Stalinism as portrayed by the 1945 George Orwell’s satirical allegory, “The Animal Farm”. Interesting times these are. Time will tell what will eventually unfold thereafter.

Author: Dr. Allan Anthony Rwabutaza.
Original Article Publication Date: 7:15 pm ET, Sunday, February 15, 2026.

mBridge Is Set To Replace The U.S.-Dollar Denominated World Financial System, Dominated By SWIFT and The Petrodollar

mBridge is a cross-border payment platform, based on a custom-built blockchain called the mBridge Ledger, that use multiple central bank digital currencies (multi-CBDC), which are faster, cheaper, and more efficient international settlements than traditional systems like SWIFT. (mBridge PDF full text, 6,336kb, 50 pages, October 22, 2025). mBridge reached the minimum viable product (MVP) stage in June 2024. In October 2024, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which was overseeing the research and development of the project, announced that it was handing over the project’s governance to the central bank partners, which some observers suggest might indicate a potential shift towards a more China-led development. Taking seconds instead of days, the more effective and the more efficient mBridge is set to replace the traditional U.S. dollar denominated world financial systems, dominated by SWIFT and the Petrodollar.

Key Details

  • Goal: To tackle the high costs, low speed, and operational complexities associated with traditional correspondent banking for international trade. Transactions on mBridge can reportedly settle in seconds, compared to days for conventional methods.
  • Technology: The platform uses a purpose-developed, permissioned distributed ledger technology (DLT) and is compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), allowing for smart contracts and add-on technology solutions.
  • Participants:
    • Founding Central Banks: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the Bank of Thailand, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE), and the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People’s Bank of China.
    • New Member: The Saudi Central Bank joined as a full participant in June 2024.
    • Former Overseer: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Innovation Hub was a key developer but handed the project over to the central bank partners in October 2024 due to geopolitical considerations and the project reaching the minimum viable product (MVP) stage.
    • Observers: Over 30 central banks and monetary authorities from around the world are observing members, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England.
  • Status: The project reached the Minimum Viable Product (MVP) stage in mid-2024, meaning it has enough features to be used for real-value transactions by early adopters and is suitable as a testbed for new use cases. The UAE has since officially launched its use of the platform with a payment to China.
  • Geopolitical Context: The project has garnered significant attention as a potential alternative to the U.S. dollar-dominated financial system, particularly among the BRICS nations, which has led to some geopolitical tensions and the BIS’s departure from the project’s oversight.

With the petrodollar system, established after a 1945 US deal with Saudi Arabia, where there was an agreement of the global practice of pricing and trading oil in U.S. dollars. This arrangement ensures consistent demand for dollars, solidifies the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency, and allows oil exporters to invest their dollar surpluses back into U.S. markets, benefiting the U.S. economy. The petrodollar system and SWIFT are two distinct but interconnected pillars of US dollar dominance in the global financial system. The petrodollar system creates demand for the US dollar, while SWIFT acts as the essential messaging network that facilitates these transactions. With the advent of the much more effective and efficient mBridge, mBridge is set to replace the U.S. dollar-denominated world financial system, dominated by SWIFT and the petrodollar system. 

Author: Dr. Allan Anthony Rwabutaza.
Original Article Publication Date: 4:06 pm ET, Sunday, January 11, 2026.

The Overview of The Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Project In Tanzania

The Tanzania Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project, a proposed $42 billion export terminal near Lindi, is being developed by a consortium of international energy companies and the Tanzanian government.

Key Stakeholders (2026 Status)

As of early 2026, the primary entities behind the project include:

  • Joint Operators: Shell (UK) and Equinor (Norway) lead the development of the offshore blocks and the onshore terminal.
  • International Partners: ExxonMobil (USA), Pavilion Energy (Singapore), and Medco Energi (Indonesia) hold significant interests in the project.
  • Government of Tanzania: The state-run Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) is a central partner and future equity holder.

Current Project Status (January 2026)

  • Legal Framework: As of January 9, 2026, the Tanzanian Attorney General’s office is finalizing the Host Government Agreement (HGA) and Production Sharing Agreement (PSA), with a target completion date of late February 2026.
  • Investment Decision: A Final Investment Decision (FID) is now anticipated later in 2026 following the conclusion of these legal and fiscal negotiations.
  • Parallel Initiatives: Separately, TPDC is collaborating with firms like Energetech Tantel and Rosetta Energy Solutions to launch smaller, modular LNG facilities by 2026 to support domestic energy needs. 

What are the main points of contention in the Host Government Agreement negotiations for the Tanzania LNG project?

As of January 2026, the negotiations for the Host Government Agreement (HGA) for Tanzania’s $42 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) project are in their final legal review stages. While technical issues have largely been resolved, several critical points of contention have historically delayed the signing.

1. Domestic Gas Allocation

A central point of negotiation has been the government’s demand for a “domestic market obligation.” Tanzanian authorities have requested that at least 3% to 10% of the gas produced be reserved for local utilization rather than export. This is intended to fuel domestic industries and power generation, but investors have expressed concerns regarding how this might impact the project’s overall commercial viability and export revenue.

2. Local Content and Insurance

The Tanzanian government has pushed for strict local content requirements, insisting that: 

  • The international consortium (Shell, Equinor, and ExxonMobil) commit to using local labor and goods.
  • The project must utilize Tanzanian-registered insurance companies for its operations.
    These demands are part of a broader strategy to ensure the project directly benefits the Lindi and Mtwara regions.

3. Fiscal Terms and Tax Incentives

Negotiators have been “haggling” over the fiscal regime, including: 

  • Tax Incentives: The government and investors are discussing specific tax breaks and government incentives required to make the project “bankable” for international financiers.
  • Contract Structure: There have been disagreements over the Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) and how revenue will be split between the state and the private companies.
  • Equity Stakes: Discussions have also involved the size of the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC)‘s equity stake and the government’s ability to fund that participation.

4. Regulatory Stability and Legal Review

Investors have expressed concerns over legal and regulatory consistency following proposed government changes to financial agreements originally initialed in 2023. As of early January 2026, the Attorney General is conducting a final legal review of the modified agreements to ensure they align with Tanzanian law before formal signing. 

What are the risks for investors in Tanzania’s LNG project?

Investors in the Tanzania Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project face a range of risks, primarily related to regulatory uncertainty, global market volatility, and local socio-political challenges. These risks have contributed to repeated delays in the project’s Final Investment Decision (FID).

Regulatory and Political Risks

  • Policy Incoherence: The lack of a stable, predictable, and robust legal and tax framework is a major concern. Frequent changes to agreements have created uncertainty and damaged investor confidence in the past.
  • Negotiation Delays: Protracted negotiations over the Host Government Agreement (HGA) and Production Sharing Agreement (PSA), specifically concerning revenue sharing and local content mandates, have significantly stalled the project’s progress.
  • Government Demands: Disputes over the government’s required equity stake (which is relatively high at 25%) and demands for specific tax incentives present substantial commercial risks for international partners like Shell and Equinor.
  • Asset Appropriation: There is a perceived risk of asset expropriation, a concern amplified by past government disputes with other mining companies in Tanzania.

Economic and Market Risks

  • Capital Intensity and Long Timelines: The project requires a massive capital investment (estimated at $42 billion) and has a long development cycle, making it susceptible to long-term economic shifts.
  • Global Price Volatility: LNG prices are often indexed to volatile global oil and gas prices. The project’s commercial viability requires a stable, long-term price (estimated breakeven price is higher than in competing regions like the US and Australia), which is a key financial risk.
  • Competition: The project faces stiff competition from other global LNG suppliers and even a parallel project in neighboring Mozambique.
  • Financing Challenges: Securing financing for such a large project is challenging, and political risk premiums can raise borrowing costs, potentially rendering the project financially unviable.

Operational and Social Risks

  • Infrastructure Deficiencies: The project site in the Lindi region is remote, requiring significant investment in supporting infrastructure and technical capacity.
  • Social and Environmental Concerns: The project is in an ecologically sensitive area, and environmental impact assessments (EIAs) have historically faced weak enforcement. There have also been past community protests related to land compensation and benefit-sharing, which pose a social license-to-operate risk.
  • Security Threats: While more pronounced in Mozambique, the broader regional context includes security threats that could potentially spill over and impact the Tanzanian project’s operations and stability.

What incentives is Tanzania offering to mitigate investor risks in the LNG project?

To mitigate investor risks and move the Tanzania Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project forward, the Tanzanian government is primarily offering a combination of specific tax incentives and a more stable, legally sound regulatory framework that includes access to international arbitration for dispute settlement. 

Fiscal and Tax Incentives

The government is in active discussions with the international consortium (Shell, Equinor, and ExxonMobil) to provide a tailored incentive package within the Host Government Agreement (HGA). While the exact figures are still under negotiation, the existing legal framework (Tanzania Investment Act, Export Processing Zones Act, Special Economic Zones Act) allows for general incentives that the project might leverage if it meets the criteria, including:

  • Ten-year tax holidays.
  • Exemption from withholding tax on foreign-source loans and rent for ten years.
  • Remission of VAT and duties on the importation of raw materials and capital goods.
  • 100% capital allowance deduction for qualifying investments in infrastructure. 

Legal and Regulatory Mitigation

To address historical concerns about policy instability and asset appropriation, Tanzania has enacted reforms and provided assurances:

  • Guarantees against nationalization and expropriation, with provisions for compensation if such events were to occur.
  • Access to international arbitration for foreign investors to settle disputes with the government or the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC).
  • A new investment act (2022) intended to create a more predictable and favorable investment environment by clarifying timeframes for incentives and protecting existing certificates.

Market and Operational Support

  • Guaranteed Domestic Market Share: While a point of contention, the government’s insistence on a domestic market obligation (reserving a percentage of gas for local use) provides a guaranteed, albeit local, off-take market, which could stabilize a portion of the project’s revenue stream.
  • Pricing Clarity: Regulations are in place to establish transparent procedures for calculating and setting natural gas prices, which helps ensure a degree of fairness and predictability in future revenue streams. 

What are the current tax rates for the LNG project?

The specific tax rates for the Tanzania Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project have not been finalized, as they are part of ongoing negotiations for the Host Government Agreement (HGA) and Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). However, the general applicable tax rates in Tanzania’s petroleum sector provide an indication of the potential fiscal regime. 

Standard Applicable Tax Rates

The current general tax rates in Tanzania that would likely apply to the project include:

  • Corporate Income Tax: A standard rate of 30% on taxable income for resident corporations or a permanent establishment (PE) of a non-resident corporation.
  • Royalty: The Petroleum Act of 2015 caps royalties for natural gas production at 12.5% for onshore and shelf areas, and 7.5% for offshore areas, calculated on the gross revenue.
  • Withholding Tax (WHT):
    • Dividends and Interest: Typically a 10% WHT applies.
    • Technical Services Fees: For non-resident technical service providers in the oil and gas sector, a 20% WHT may apply.
  • Value Added Tax (VAT): The standard VAT rate is 18%, but exemptions for natural gas have been part of recent budget proposals.
  • Loss Offset Limit: The amount of unrelieved losses from the extractive sector that can be utilized to offset current year profits is currently limited to 60%.

Status of Project-Specific Rates

The Tanzanian government and the international consortium (Shell, Equinor, and ExxonMobil) are discussing specific tax incentives to make the $42 billion project viable and attractive to investors. These specific, potentially preferential, rates will be detailed and legally established within the final HGA and PSA documents, which are currently undergoing final legal review and are expected to be signed later in 2026.

Author: Dr. Allan Anthony Rwabutaza.
Original Article Publication Date: 12:00 pm ET, Friday, January 9, 2026.